FY11 Fall River Operating Budget?

Today's Fall River Herald News (HN) ran an article about the Mayor's proposed FY2011 budget that raises more questions than it answers. I think this may be a product of  who is giving out the information and who they are giving it to.

In typical HN form the article is a mish mash of revenue source numbers and appropriation figures that  fit about as well as a 10,000 piece jig-saw puzzle, and they make just as much sense. There is no way to really tell what this administration is planning, or how responsible and realistic this budget is in meeting community needs next fiscal year, nor is it possible to gain insight into future planning by this administration on the basis of the numbers discussed in the HN. This presentation of the FY11 budget is in no way a credible and comprehensive picture of the City's looming financial situation.

For example, it's the future inability of the City to meet it's fixed cost items, like Debt Service, Health Insurance, and Retirement that will dictate how successful the City will be in balancing next fiscal years, and all future fiscal year's budgets. But the article never mentions these items. That begs questions like, "Have the unions backed potentially going to the GIC Health Insurance alternative?", "Is the City prepared to tackle the issue of  Retiree Health Insurance future liability?", "When will we begin to meet our Unfunded Pension Liability obligations if we keep putting off payment due to budget needs?" , and " We're building new schools, and paying for ones already built, what does the Debt Service Schedule tell us about how much debt has been payed off and can we afford even the small portion we have to pay after the state portion of the debt is paid?"

These are very critical questions because our obligations in the near future are having an impact, as they always do, on the current year's budget proposal! So a full presentation and discussion of these items are of crucial importance.

Don't expect the HN to ask those questions. The HN reporters merely report, they do not investigate. And they do not fully comprehend the budget or the budget process.
It is all really kept in Medieval silence until it is sprung upon people by the June 1 deadline. The City Council never receives it in time for meaningful research on the major cost items like Health Insurance or Retirement. This attempt by the Mayor to have a public forum on the budget is not to get information or gain insight on it's budget - that proposed budget will NOT change no matter what information is presented at the public forum. Rather, the forum is a "binky" of sorts, meant to allow the more boisterous among the concerned public a chance to vent and babble and then , in all honesty, just go away, as far as the Mayor's office is concerned, all protestations by the Mayor aside. By dint of office, every act by the Mayor is a calculated one, a political one. At this point they don't want any real input by the citizens - it would just slow their process, their timetable.

I would actually like to see their revenue estimates first, a true full discussion of sources, continuing and new, and any changes from the prior year and why. This is critical, as opposed  to expense items, because under MA law, you can only spend what you can raise in revenues. Everything depends on the revenue bottom line.

From the revenue bottom line you would begin to offset by the amount of known fixed cost items. These would be broken down in detail, like how many enrollees, by department, have what kind of health plan and what the associated plan cost is that the City would pay, totaled, to render a group insurance fixed cost. With all the fixed cost items the devil is in the details and the details must be published.

After all these fixed costs are determined, the difference between the revenue bottom line and fixed costs is what you have left to spend on the day-to-day operating budget. There is no other way to do this budget process. I'm sure the Finance Director has done this.

There is NO WAY Mr. Cadime had a meaningful role to play in constructing this budget. He simply hasn't been working as City Administrator for a long enough period of time. This go around, he is merely a mouthpiece for the Mayor. I'm sure the Mayor wants Cadime to be the public face of the budget to present a budget the Mayor thinks  is good work. It may be more of a calculation than this Mayor wants to make. If the budget is flawed in a serious manner, Cadime's reputation will be ruined and his ability to perform as City Administrator will suffer greatly.

Given a lack of detail to examine for a day or two, no one, even those with a background in budgeting, could tell you definitively one way or the other whether this submitted appropriation request is comprehensive and solid. it's simply impossible. But we do know that several important questions loom that will dictate the efficacy of this budget.
These revolve primarily around the role of the employee unions, the firefighters in particular, and whether they will take the 8% pay cuts other unions have accepted in the past, and which the Mayor expects them all to take for at least another year. This is a huge assumption. It is the cornerstone of the Mayor's entire budget being balanced. One has to wonder aloud if the Mayor has obtained the agreement of the Police and Fire unions on this matter, and whether the School Committee, which the Mayor chairs, has likewise done with Teachers and School Administrator's bargaining units. It would not surprise me if this was already settled behind the scenes. But it would also not surprise me if he did not do so.

The presentation of this now UNBALANCED budget in the public manner used does several things. First, it serves notice now that all taxes and fees will be going up  and will be maximized where ever possible. Stating that fact often over the course of the next couple of months will serve to reduce the public psychological impact when the boom if lowered.
Second, it serves as a way to paint the unions as the bad guys if they don't agree with further pay cuts. It's a statement that the budget is balanced as long as THOSE GUYS do what I think should be done. Once again, no matter who the Mayor is, he hopes to balance the budget on the backs of the City's employees. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Finally, this Mayor getting his budget message out in the friendly HN, using confusing and disparate categories of revenue source increases and appropriation requests does precisely what the  administration wants most at the present - muddy the waters with good, if not true, news, and keep the people from asking for and examining the details. It also sets in motion  the public sentiment to support the Mayor's request ad at the same time puts pressure on the City Council and Unions to go along with it.

Based on what this administration has done with City finances so far, I do not have great hopes that this budget is balanced and that we will not be putting out several fires in the coming months based on deficits in various accounts, and actual FY10 operating deficits being carried very quietly on the Cherry Sheet Charges section of the FY 11 Tax Rate Recapitulatulation  Sheet. We already know they plan to do this with sewer deficit carry forwards. They may also have to do this for Police overtime. The public has a right to know why these deficits occurred and how they will be prevented in the future. That discussion should be presented and had in public.

So, what do we have on our hands so far? The Mayor has submitted a budget that is not balanced due to assumptions about union salary figures and the 8% cut carry-forward and no discussion of any meaningful details within the Fixed Cost categories. The budget was published in the Mayor friendly HN, and reads like an announcement of a new family cruise to Disney World. What else could we expect in Fall River.

Let's see what the public forum brings forth.

Tempus Fugit

I grow increasingly troubled by the lack of mention of the Fall River FY11 Operating Budget by anyone connected to leadership in this City's government. In Fact, I'm beginning to worry quite a lot.


Everything else is a sideshow compared to the immediate year's, and following year's operating budgets. The Destination Casino, the Bio-Tech Park, the minor league basketball team, improvement and development of the waterfront, the opening of the Quequechan River, the completion of a bridge across the Taunton River that should have been completed 10 years ago - all of these projects will mean absolutely, positively nothing if this and next years operating budgets cannot be balanced in a way that does not entail massive public employee layoffs which everyone involved in the budget process, including  the citizens and taxpayers of the City, wishes to avoid. Yet there is virtually total silence coming from City Hall.


Worse still is the latest. A request by Public Works head Pacheco to take out short term loans to replenish operating budget line items denuded by flood damage a few weeks back is extremely dangerous if it entails carrying outstanding short term debt on the City's June 30, 2010 Balance Sheet. This would have two immediate impacts:
1) The amount of any unpaid short term debt due in FY11 would immediately lower any possible Free Cash totals available to the City on a dollar for dollar basis. In other words, there would be less free cash available to put together a stabilization fund appropriation or to plug known budget shortages to avoid layoffs. The former impact is appropriate, the latter not-so-much, in terms of public finance, yet most likely needed to avoid the full impact of reduced public service across the board given our increasing  scenario of financial armageddon during FY11. And,
2) Unpaid short term borrowing carried over from one fiscal year into the next will immediately lower Fall River's already suspect credit worthiness, increasing greatly the cost of borrowing short term for all purposes and pushing us once again more steadily towards that nasty neighborhood known as a  DOR Revenue Control Board.


I don't know about you, but I've been to Lawrence, and no matter how bad things ever get in fall River, you don't EVER want to be in the same boat as Lawrence. And due to all kinds of employee overtime being spent unchecked in that City by it's government after being warned to control it's spending, word is that DOR control of every penny spent in that City may finally be put in place. That City will probably NOT be able to repay it's long term debt owed the state that was needed to make ends meet this year. It's simply not possible to see a huge difference between the two City's any longer.


If such proposed short term debt is due and paid prior to June 30, then the previous two arguments are void. However, what scares me most is that we could be seeing a purposeful overspending of budgeted line items. There may be no budgeted authority left in some DPW line items as I write this. We have no way of knowing because I have no recollection of such budget reviews taking place on a regular basis in public, or any indication that anyone actually cares. Has anyone out there heard such a question being asked of Mr. Pacheco by a member of the City Council prior to the floods? I don't. If I'm incorrect, please let me know.


No, City officials and the legislative delegation find it more worthwhile to spend time supporting the Grossman for State Treasurer campaign. Steve Grossman owns Mass Envelope, a company that for years did enormous business with state government for paper products of all types. This is not an aspersion against the man at all. he also does great business outside of MA as well. Steve Grossman is a financial thoroughbred, and would make a great choice as State Treasurer. He also has the political portfolio as well having been campaign treasurer for many races and Democratic Party politicians. He knows all the right people and has worked hard to see them be successful. He is a nationwide , first class fund raiser.


Do I think the local coterie of public officials made the right choice to back Steve Grossman? Yes, I do. If there is anyone to guarantee that casino gambling proceeds will be distributed efficiently and funds invested appropriately it's a man like Steve Grossman. Do I think I'd like to see all the same people at the announcement teaming up the same way, at the same time, right now in May, banding together to work hard on this FY11 budget? Absolutely, because all these other projects have people or appointed bodies to deliver the goods. If they are incapable of doing so, then it's high time some changes are made, and the public would support that. For some involved in these many projects, I'm afraid it's fish or cut bait time.


The FY 11 and FY 12 budget to follow requires the time and effort of the City Councilors AND the Mayor and his immediate brain trust. Will Flanagan cannot give the impression of sitting by,  like his predecessor, when Correia was pulling every string behind the scenes then announcing things like "Hey, that's why I have staff, to do those things for me".  No, this is Mayor Flanagan's first municipal operating budget for Fall River. Regardless of what good or bad things are contained there in , they are HIS good or bad things, not some new City Administrator who did a terrible job with School Committee budget submissions and reviews, nor can he blame the City's Finance Director. There will be no more free passes Mr. Mayor. The honeymoon is long over. That FY11 budget is YOURS. Your name will be plastered on every page even if it doesn't literally say so.


So while we are all caught up with the numerous red herrings trotted out before the taxpayers of Fall River just before budget time and election time, even those that may happen, we have to be most mindful of today, and the unavoidable freight train of financial reality that lurks behind that tiny pin-prick of light heading for us at the end of the dark tunnel we peer into. The train is coming faster everyday. June 30 is nearly upon us, yet the silence is so very deafening. Yelling and screaming about casino's and Bio-Parks won't pay for police and fire and teachers next July or September yet we'll most likely still be yelling aloud about casino's and Bio-Parks then too.


Time to reduce the quacking level and put a pair of noise-cancelling headphones so we can hear the financial fires raging. It's time for our elected officials to open the public discussion of the FY11 operating budget. Tempus Fugit.

It's simple because it's complicated

Such a headache I have today.

All I had to do was read the article in the Fall River Herald News today and felt somewhat prescient for my comments yesterday:

" For a Massachusetts community where, truth be told, little of note happens other than the occasional drug related shooting, this is big news. Something to get fired up about. Something where the dormant yet always near the surface bellicose nature of politics springs to life like the sharpest of cactus plants suddenly blooming in the middle of a lush green spring meadow, right down near the pond. In other words, it cannot be avoided and will most definitely sting the most careful of persons. It is what Fall River says it hates, but loves in a twisted manner as if such hate is it's reason for existing. "

Well, the confusing Fall River love affair with political bellicosity is reflected in the article and related comments covering the resolution by 4 of the City's 9 City Council members against the proposed displacement of the Bio-Tech Park by a destination casino .

First, to attempt to fully understand the ins and outs of this political cauldron is unwise at this point. Every position, every comment,  every vote and assertion being made by City, State, and yes, even Business officials connected to both of these projects reflects specific narrow objectives. Everything has meanings within meanings. Nothing is straight forward. Most of the comments and sentiments true meanings may never come to the naked light of day. It's just too early in this passion play to understand  who really is controlling things and why.

Maybe it's wise to take a big step back and look at the total picture , otherwise we will, as they say, miss the forest for the trees.

First, let's help analyze the current Fall River situation and look at the facts. We have a first year mayor who inherited a financial and administrative nightmare, the extent of which was hidden from the City by a group of insiders loyal to the previous mayor. This mayor made promises which, for whatever reasons, did not pan out, placing him immediately in the cross hairs of many who supported his candidacy. Up to now he has had a fractious relationship with the City Council. The primary bright light for this Mayor is the effective use of a new Police Chief to attack growing street crime at the cost of a burgeoning overtime budget account which the City, in all likelihood, cannot afford. Gang related violent crime and drug sales continue with little abatement.

The Fall River Office of Economic Development (FROED) has had few successes in the last few years. Just prior to the destination casino, the latest FROED discussion was aimed at the "parking near the New Courthouse" situation, with little regard given anyone in Fall River where adequate parking down town is concerned. It was a problem, like all recent failures related to FROED , that was laid at the feet of FROED's Executive Vice President and Fall River favorite son, Kenneth Fiola. FROED was also the biggest proponent of the Bio-Tech Park concept with Mr. Fiola having a role with both FROED and the Fall River Redevelopment Authority(RA), the body responsible for purchasing the 300 acre parcel of land for the Bio-Park from the state.

Of the greatest factors of concern to all citizens of Fall River are these unavoidable and undeniable FACTS -

* The City of Fall River faces the greatest financial hurdle in it's history to be presented in it's FY11 Operating Budget. Each year simple arithmetic shows how the gap between expenses needed to "turn the key and open City Hall for business" and the revenues needed to make that happen will grow much wider year after year for the foreseeable future. The issue is how will it be possible to balance this and future budgets even with cuts in manpower and services? The City teeters on financial insolvency, just like the City of Lawrence, yet another once proud mill town reduced to a haven of gangs and the violent crime and drug life they bring with them.
* The City of Fall River Schools are under state review for having vastly under-performing schools in comparison to statewide averages. The City ranks as third worst in the state for number of schools in dire condition of education performance as measured by standardized tests and student comprehension, with 3 listed, and only Boston and Springfield, much larger City's, in worse shape.
* The City of Fall River has the highest Unemployment Rate in the state, just over 18%, with over 50% of it's workforce from 18-65 without a high school diploma or GED. In short, the potential workforce is predominantly unskilled, uneducated and under and unemployed.
If every resource was made available today for the schools to educate and the students to learn well, it would take a couple of generations of students to pass through the school system to produce an educated and well trained workforce. Fall River is many years from being at that point.

All comments by Fall River supporters to the contrary these are hard facts. You cannot have any analysis of possible motivations by political actors to make the choices they make without first knowing the facts at hand. The political actors themselves operate under no illusions of what the facts are, and what they mean.

So, at this point, I will attempt to analyze the actions and statements we have seen so far as they relate to a "destination casino" and the Bio-Tech Park.

It looks like Mayor Flanagan and FROED saw it mutually advantageous to join forces to both solve an immediate crucial problem that directly touches most residents of the City (employment for it's largely uneducated and unskilled labor force, revenues to help fund City budget gaps) and one that also would raise goodwill both parties have with Fall River residents. In short, it's a shot to solve two of the City's worst problems and look good doing it at the same time. That's plenty of motivation to attempt the risk of moving the Bio-Park and proceed down the path towards a destination casino.  All protestations otherwise, UMass will fuss about it and the state will threaten to make the Wompanoags and Malaysians who back this casino financially with having to pay for the Rt. 24 cutoff and infrastructure improvements, but it was not originally state money in reality, it was stimulus funding that paid for much of the highway project. With a great likelihood that Deval Patrick will win another term as Governor, as long as the Fall River voters approve his re-election the Mayor will have little problem with the changes he seeks to the authorizing legislation placing restrictions of the 300 acre parcel. And the local legislative delegation's protests to the contray, with one GLARING exception, will eventually go along with the change as well.
At this point most politicians want to withhold immediate support for the project on the basis of appearances. They want to look responsible and concerned and will call for more time to 'look at the possible options". In fact, this posturing allows them to maintain a safe, hold blameless position in case the deal goes south, and someone else to blame if the Bio-Tech park is sited out of Fall River.  It's also a way to send a not very subtle signal to the financial interests backing this casino project exactly who needs to be wooed, if you will, in order to gain full support and votes for approval. What's that old saying about, "now that we know what you are, we're merely haggling over price"?
There is one state representative holding a strong position against the destination casino and to stay with the original Bio-Tech Park project. He is Rep. Rodrigues.  It may be the fact that he is backed by the MA Bio-Tech Council and head of the House committee that deals with Bio-Tech issues that keeps him solidly against the destination casino. In public sector parlance that is known as being "captured" by the people you regulate or have oversight responsibility for. This capturing is a function of needing information about what the business will do, through lobbyists, rather then trying to have staff learn what usually is very technical data and highly specialized information. That and spending a lot of time with representatives of the industry involved so you can learn what they do, who they are, and what they need from you and your committee to thrive as an industry, as well as what they can do for the commonwealth and constituents of your district.
In this case, Rep. Rodrigues is also recipient of tens of thousands of dollars from the industry itself in the form of campaign contributions. This is plainly put. I leave it up to the reader to determine if this is a "quid pro quo" arrangement, given that Rep. Rodrigues seeks to run for outgoing Sen. Menard's district seat in the Senate. Given the great costs of political campaigns these days, even State senate races have to come under deep scrutiny to see whose is truly a grass roots campaign and whose is a creature of machine politics and larger financial interests different from that district's constituents.

All sides, institutions, political actors and businesses are posturing right now. The knowledgeable folks in Fall River understand this. There will be more days than fewer in the next few months where rhetoric of the type covered in the HN article and comments section is the rule, not the exception. No one, not the Mayor, not FROED, not UMass nor the MA Bio-Tech Council know how this will all work out. But for trying to do something that will cure what ails Fall River's immediate situation, the joint cooperation between FROED, Mayor Flanagan and the developers of the destination casino draw first blood in this fight.

In any event "it ain't over till it's over". There is nothing that prevents the City from completing both projects. If the Bio-Tech Park falls through, it will be the decision of  UMass to  withdraw that will decide this issue once and for all. The City will never officially abandon that project. The details will have to be worked out.

Stay tuned.

"We're on a mission from Gahhd"

Here we are once again facing an apparent dilemma with sides chosen, changed positions, hard feelings and charges of skulduggery not unproven by what amounts to a simple cursory glance of the facts. Welcome to Fall River!

If a stranger knew nothing about this City other than it was the place where Lizzie Borden took the axe to mom and pops, it could see the essential Fall River in the controversy, just starting I might add, over the building of a "destination casino" on a tract of land currently restricted in use by contractual agreement with the state.

It has all the hallmarks of a real Fall River hum dinger. Divided loyalties among the City's people, charges of a lack of transparency by those who use a lack of transparency to their own purpose on other issues, tons of money coming into the City now or about to be to bolster opposing viewpoints, and a legislative delegation who see the same facts and envision vastly different needs and solutions. Ordinarily most outside observers would think this situation a real mess.

They would be wrong, of course. In Fall River, this is where the rubber meets the road. The fight over the casino and related uncertain fate of the Bio-Tech Park, which the casino, if approved in the end, would dispossess from it's site, is what gets the life juices of this City flowing.

For a Massachusetts community where, truth be told, little of  note happens other than the occasional drug related shooting, this is big news. Something to get fired up about. Something where the dormant yet always near the surface bellicose nature of politics springs to life like the sharpest of cactus plants suddenly blooming in the middle of a lush green spring meadow, right down near the pond. In other words, it cannot be avoided and will most definitely sting the most careful of persons. It is what Fall River says it hates, but loves in a twisted manner as if such hate is it's reason for existing.

Yes it's slightly perverse. That is because the City lacks any sort of worldly outlook. It eschews universality the way old fashioned still owners protected themselves from the "Revenue-ers" in the Ozark Mountains. It's entirely parochial in the way it sees the outside world. It's very simple, really. It is a world of "them" and "US", them being the world which is virtually any measurable distance just outside the City lines. It seems like it's always been this way. When you consider the advent of instantaneous communication available virtually anywhere on earth, the insular nature of Fall River stands as mystifying. It's not as if the outside world doesn't reach into the City - the City rejects it out of hand! 

It is this fact that has to be understood to fully realize why such possible good news for a community with the highest unemployment rate in the state, and also one of highest rates of drop outs and adult working populations, over 50%,  without high school diplomas or GED's, would question the bounty of an outside entity bringing them 3 - 5,000 jobs. The casino would also bring revenues to fund Fall River budget gaps to save public safety and school teacher jobs and bring the outside world to this floundering City.

Questions? They abound on every side of this issue.

     *Should we chose between one project over the other  (Casino vs. Bio-
      Park) or could we do both projects? Yes, I think we could accommodate both
        and we should. It appears one project would suit current education and training
        levels of the current population and deliver greatly needed jobs (Casino)while the
        other  (Bio-Tech) seems to be the real future of the City.

     *How many jobs will be produced by both projects?  Early estimates from
         proponents of the casino indicate 3-5,000 jobs from the casino, mostly
         manual labor-service/entry level jobs - original estimates for the Bio-Tech park
         were any figure from a low of 12  at original start up to a fully developed
         Industrial Park type complex that COULD hold as high as 12,000 fairly
         technical jobs available for those with appropriate training and education
         although most observers doubt the 12, 000 job figure. Something in the
         in the 2,000 range might be more realistic, but no one really knows, other than
         this could be a real long-term employer and industry for Fall River's future.

     *Where do the elected officials and political power entities stand on these
        proposals? To understand this you need both a scorecard and one of those
        tracking devices they put in cars to figure out where the car has been. Outgoing
        Senator Menard and Mayor Flanagan are in favor of both projects, trying to
        build the casino first due to immediate job needs, while one of the state
        representatives looking to win Menard's Senate seat wants a strong commitment
        to a Bio-Tech Park on the original location. Those are the two popular extremes.
        From what I can gather all other elected officials have taken a cautionary and
        semi-objective position which means in the end they'll support the option which
        gains them the most votes. It seems that rather than contribute to the building of 
        a consensus most of these officials wait for a popular consensus to build, then
        hop on board and adopt it as their own.
        In terms of institutions, FROED has flip flopped on this issue. Previously,
        FROED was a strong proponent of the Bio-Tech Park. Now they appear to be a
        co-sponsor with Mayor Flanagan of the destination casino on the spot that was
        originally purchased with a Bio-Tech park in mind. Mayor Flanagan had attacked
        FROED during his run for the Mayor's Office for lack of productivity and now
        seems to be partnering with FROED to see this casino project become reality.
        If there were any doubt about this all one had to do was see the photos of
        FROED's Executive Vice President Fiola with the Mayor's Chief of Staff Torres
        wearing sun glasses while visiting the site location for a photo op. They
        looked like the a poor man's version of the Blues Brothers, although they also
        appeared to be very pleased with being "on a mission from gahhd", to quote
        Elwood Blues.
    
     *Who appear to be the winners and losers? Quick listing here:
            Winners - Mayor Flanagan, FROED, Fall River workers, especially
            construction trades and those without HS diplomas, Senator Menard
            Malaysian developers, Wompanoag Nation, Fall River municipal employees
            citizens of Fall River.

            Losers - Rep. Rodrigues, Bio-Tech project, MA Bio-Tech Council, UMass,
            Green community, Satanists everywhere (Satanists are thought to perform
            occasional rituals in Freetown State Forest, part of the area taken by the
            casino), any member of the Fall River legislative delegation to vote against
            the casino project.
    
This is but the very beginning of what promises to be a convoluted soap opera in true Fall River fashion before it's all said and done. But we wouldn't have it any other way.

Please feel free to ask any questions you'd like, or gives us your opinions, after all, they will be no less valid than anything you read here. Thanks for dropping by!

Recklessly Stupid

Officials at the White House and Democratic Party offices in Connecticut are extremely worried this morning. It seems their candidate for the Senate in Connecticut, state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, hasn't been entirely honest about his military service record. This could come back to haunt both Blumenthal and the national Democratic Party in a big way.

He is still the favorite to win  the seat to replace retiring Senator Chris Dodd. But that could change as early as today as the story gains traction. His most likely Republican opponent in the race, Ms. Linda McMahon, the former chief executive of professional wrestling company World Wrestling Entertainment Inc., already has added a tint of the strange to the race given her colorful background appearing on numerous broadcasts of WWE televised events over a stretch of some 30 years. Imagine having a Senator with friends known as the late "Fabulous Moolah" or one time Minnesota Governor Jesse "The Body" Ventura, as he was known in his wrestling days. It is quite likely her talent for performing in out-sized fashion before millions of viewers will serve her will as she no doubt pounds Blumenthal for his stretching the truth about his military service at a time when terrorism is on every voters mind. This as she hasn't even won the Republican nomination to run against him. Her lead against her Republican party primary opponent is safe, however, so she can start pummeling Blumenthal now in what is sure to become a mantra like fashion.

Blumenthal exaggerated his military service consistently over much of his political career. He often alluded to his time "in Vietnam during that war", when in fact, he received 5 deferments, then served in the Marine reserves in Washington DC during the time war raged in Vietnam. It sounds disturbingly like the war time service of a certain President from Texas.

The question that I think needs to be asked is why would such an intelligent man continue this exaggeration of his war record in this day and age? Did he truly think this would escape the ever watchful eyes of the party he was running against, a party that prides itself on revealing such military service distortions and lies by their opposition to rile up their base, even in a northeast state like Connecticut? And more simply asked, "What was he thinking"?

It goes even deeper. What were his handlers thinking? Did they not have someone on their own side vet this candidate first to find out what secrets were hiding in Blumenthal's attic ? That is standard operating procedure for an office like US Senator. There obviously are more people involved in this distortion of Blumenthal's military record and because they also knew, that, if you will, is where the true crime lies.  It's also where the true anti-Blumenthal propaganda will most effectively come from. Nothing catches the imagination of leery people more than a wholly believable conspiracy theory.They have delivered themselves up on a platter. At this point it is only a question of how feeble the Republican party in Connecticut and Ms. McMahon's people are in making this blunder by Blumenthal stick through the final election. Personally I think such exhibited greedy stupidity on Blumenthal and his handlers part deserves the final fate of having Ms. McMahon stick a fork into his electoral carcass.

The lesson to be learned by all this? If you are running for any office in these days of blogs, Facebook, Twitter, You-Tube, picture and video taking cell phones and media networks stumbling over themselves for the latest juicy gossip, make sure your cupboard is clean and clear from wreckage of the past, or get out in front of it. Americans, no matter what state they inhabit, always treat such truth telling with great understanding and a warm and willing heart. WE are, by nature, a forgiving people and have a soft spot for personal bravery and redemption. However, by the same token, we detest blatant stupidity, especially of the greedy kind borne of personal gain. This, the stupidity, not the personal gain, is what we, as an American culture simply reject out of hand. We like a clever scoundrel, the more clever the better and almost allow thievery by such creative people as if it were earned under the guise of a warped "American Ingenuity". But blatant stupidity compounded by greed is an unforgivable American sin. It's time politicians learn this, or they will cease being active politicians very soon. There are no more secrets for politicians in this hyper media society.

Taking a gamble on gambling.

Well, it appears the hopes and dreams for an end to grinding unemployment might be coming true for many in Fall River in the next couple of years.

Friday, the Mayor of Fall River, Will Flanagan, received a solid commitment from Arkana Ltd an affiliate of Malaysian-based Kien Huat Realty and prime investor of Foxwoods Resort Casino. This firm sent a letter of commitment stating they were "married" to the Mashpee Wampanoag Indian tribe and that Arkana Ltd would financially back a destination resort casino in the city.

Imagine a luxury hotel, casino, shops , restaurants, entertainment complex and a golf course in one location in the woods off the new Rt. 24 exit 8 1/2. This would surely be a first for Fall River. Taking a gamble on gambling. How utterly ironic and I sincerely hope, not fatally so. This City needs the types of jobs such a facility would bring, jobs designed for unskilled labor and semi-skilled labor.



 Sure, there will be a fair share of functions requiring degrees from 2 and 4 year colleges and universities, and I am sure there are more than enough local candidates to fill those positions. But the overwhelming majority of the types of jobs immediately present (maintenance, housekeeping, wait staff, laundry, bartenders, transportation, grounds crew, food preparation, casino workers) will most likely fit the job and education skills profile of the current population of Fall River, where over 50% of the adult population lack a high school diploma or GED. One hopes these individuals would strive to work for job skill training and additional education to improve their marketability, however to afford that often takes funds which these 40 hour a week jobs could provide. And we should all remember that it's far easier to obtain a better paying job once you have one. The estimated number of jobs such a destination resort casino would  bring is approximately 3,000 jobs and could go as high as 5,000.

Of course, building the facilities of this resort will be a boon to the construction trades in the area, again making it possible to hire skilled and unskilled labor to good paying jobs for a solid period of time, exactly what a City with the highest unemployment rate in this state needs. I'm sure the construction trades unions must be ready and rarin' to go, and who could blame them. These specific well paying trade union jobs historically lead to economic growth and expansion of local  and regional economies through housing formation and increased purchases of long term durable goods to fill homes with furniture, appliances, electronic goods and automobiles and trucks. These jobs will help create wealth and expand the tax base, critical for the survival of Fall River and the region.

This is the good part of the equation. But there are always associated drawbacks. Maybe we'll call this Henry's Rule #1, a sort of physics of common sense - every time something brings positive things, there are also possible negative things delivered as well. At least that's been my experience. So it might behoove us to look at what  possible negative consequences  could be if the recent good news pans out.

     *Social costs of gambling-
It is inevitable that with the advent of casino gambling will come a rise in gambling addictions within the local populace. It will make current gambling addicts worse and will create new addicts as the simple proximity of the casino will draw those looking to make a killing in winnings come flying to the resort like moths to the flame.  There must be social services available to deal with the problem even before the first pair of dice are thrown or the first time someone holds with a 17 at the black jack table.

     *Rise in vice related crimes-
Fall River already has it's fair share of prostitution and hard drug use among what appears to be a long-term solid group of hard core drug addicts. Heroin, Oxycontin and cocaine abuse runs rampant throughout all ages and stations of life in the City. The arrival of the casino will bring along with it an increase in all sorts of vice-related crime. This has been the case wherever Casino gambling has opened and Fall River will not break this trend, especially in consideration of the opiate epidemic already here. As a community we must start lobbying for additional funding for drug addiction services and programs within the schools to prevent our children from becoming addicts in the first place.
 School drug prevention programs are proven to work. Treatment programs are proven to work. As soon as the first shovel breaks ground, efforts to deliver additional funds for social service programs aimed at addiction treatment and education must take place. Additional programs aimed at prostitution and the young women suffering from both sex industry work and drug addiction, since to two problems go hand in hand, must also be put into place.
Fall River already has the social service infrastructure in place for these programs at programs like SSTAR and STEPPINGSTONE, INC to act as a base of operations for these expanded activities.

     *Displacement of other opportunities-
In economics terms, this would technically be called an "opportunity cost" of building a resort destination casino. There are several costs that could be both short and long term. First, the use of the land this resort will rest upon is lost to other development. Specifically, it displaces the long-planned Bio-Park , a "Bio-Tech" business incubator (designing and creating viable scientific businesses utilizing newly developed bio technologies) in conjunction with U/Mass. The idea is to bring new products and technologies to market, taking ideas off the drawing board , many dealing with genetic engineering and cell-tissue culture technologies, into practical application.



The total amount of land required by the Bio-Park my be as little as 3-4 acres at the outset. Certainly within Fall River there are numerous locations where such acreage is readily available for development of the Bio-Park. In fact, one has to wonder in retrospect why such a high acreage was originally set aside for a purpose that can be served by one - tenth that amount? Was it to set aside additional land for future industrial use, or for other use as seen fit by the Redevelopment Authority (RA), almost like having an ace in the hole placed in your back pocket? And if so, doesn't that itself become an opportunity cost? Just questions to consider. It could constitute good land use planning, but should it not be a more open process and it's land use purpose made clear and certain for all to see. In a way it provides those particularly close to the members of the RA an unfair advantage in planning for potential uses of the land and surrounding areas in question. Again, a question to consider. In purely economic terms that would be called an information "market imperfection" increasing potential opportunity and transaction costs.

It is also possible , but not likely, that as a result of the change of the original dedicated use of the 300 acre parcel UMass could decide to develop the Bio-Tech park in another municipality.  If so that would be an opportunity cost with the resulting loss of anywhere from a likely few thousand highly skilled and well paying jobs to a possible, but unlikely, high total of an estimated 8,000 such jobs. ( The lower estimate being my own guess, the higher total from statements made by spokes people for the RA - they must have been breathing rarefied air that day)

So there are many unanswered questions at this point, and the entire proposed award is fiction until concrete agreements are reached and the Legislature and Governor agree there will be casino gambling in Massachusetts. However, if it becomes reality and Fall River is eventually awarded one of the expected casino licences it will bring much needed employment to Fall River that could revive the City, including positive spin offs like a vibrant waterfront and vastly increased restaurant trade and tourism. But of course, only time will tell.

Into the Breach

" We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day. "
From Shakespeare's play HENRY V


KING HENRY V:
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour'd rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o'erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O'erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill'd with the wild and wasteful ocean.
Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
To his full height. On, on, you noblest English.
Whose blood is fet from fathers of war-proof!
Fathers that, like so many Alexanders,
Have in these parts from morn till even fought
And sheathed their swords for lack of argument:
Dishonour not your mothers; now attest
That those whom you call'd fathers did beget you.
Be copy now to men of grosser blood,
And teach them how to war. And you, good yeoman,
Whose limbs were made in England, show us here
The mettle of your pasture; let us swear
That you are worth your breeding; which I doubt not;
For there is none of you so mean and base,
That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.
I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game's afoot:
Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry 'God for Harry, England, and Saint George!'




In the spirit of the Bard's royal protagonist I start this blog with the hope that my comments about Fall River will engender true reflection, active discussion and meaningful communication about all things Fall River.

Fall River is many things; a home to 90,000 men, women and children, a city in transition into the 21st century, a community in turmoil as crime runs rampant despite increased police efforts, a municipality whose government seemingly has stood frozen in time, aloof and out of reach from those it nominally serves, an education system broken and in extremis,  and the state's highest unemployment rate.

But it is also a community made up of hearty people of many nationalities and cultures, which I believe strengthens Fall River, not diminishes it in any way. It is a City encased in a rich and colorful history which cannot be discounted and which must be fully understood in order to comprehend where we find it today. Fall River is a haven for those who love a culinary experience few can find in such abundance and simple enjoyment.

Most importantly, while Fall River has numerous serious problems facing it today, it also has untapped potential which, if awoken, could return Fall River to a new prominence in the region and, hopefully, in the state. It is up to us to review and examine what has to be done to make that renewal possible.

That will take honesty and a critical eye. It will be the product of objective and careful examination and acceptance of the facts. It will require constructive and well thought solutions, not merely the assignment of blame, although, we cannot allow sentimentality over people, places and things to replace valid sentiment and rational, sometime hard judgement to weaken our efforts. And we must work together, all of us, to make this City the place it can be, a place where once again we can all raise families without fear of economic uncertainty or ruin, without fear of crime, or disingenuous, wasteful and unresponsive governance and of future development and improvement that makes sense for ALL the people of this City both in the short and long term.

Will this discussion seek to construct a Fall River utopia that is not real or impossible to achieve? NO, on the contrary, we will discuss the ways and means of total community building that works in other places and has established track records.

For this blog to be successful, we will need your regular input. My email address is easily available on this site, so feel free to email me with suggested topics you'd like me to cover to start a discussion. Nothing is off the table for discussion. However, this will remain a place of civility and respect at all times. Social decorum will be followed at all times. Violators comment's will simply disappear. There is always a way to discuss subjects, however passionate you may be, without resorting to ad hominem attacks.That is really the only rule.

The objective here is to combine a free forum for ideas, without fear of reprisal or ridicule, with humble efforts to improve the City of Fall River. To that end we will be faithfully committed.

Once again, I hope you are able to participate. Everything this blog does will depend on you!

Thank you for reading,
As always,

Your royal highness,

Hank 5
Into the breach my friends, into the breach we shall go together