It's simple because it's complicated

Such a headache I have today.

All I had to do was read the article in the Fall River Herald News today and felt somewhat prescient for my comments yesterday:

" For a Massachusetts community where, truth be told, little of note happens other than the occasional drug related shooting, this is big news. Something to get fired up about. Something where the dormant yet always near the surface bellicose nature of politics springs to life like the sharpest of cactus plants suddenly blooming in the middle of a lush green spring meadow, right down near the pond. In other words, it cannot be avoided and will most definitely sting the most careful of persons. It is what Fall River says it hates, but loves in a twisted manner as if such hate is it's reason for existing. "

Well, the confusing Fall River love affair with political bellicosity is reflected in the article and related comments covering the resolution by 4 of the City's 9 City Council members against the proposed displacement of the Bio-Tech Park by a destination casino .

First, to attempt to fully understand the ins and outs of this political cauldron is unwise at this point. Every position, every comment,  every vote and assertion being made by City, State, and yes, even Business officials connected to both of these projects reflects specific narrow objectives. Everything has meanings within meanings. Nothing is straight forward. Most of the comments and sentiments true meanings may never come to the naked light of day. It's just too early in this passion play to understand  who really is controlling things and why.

Maybe it's wise to take a big step back and look at the total picture , otherwise we will, as they say, miss the forest for the trees.

First, let's help analyze the current Fall River situation and look at the facts. We have a first year mayor who inherited a financial and administrative nightmare, the extent of which was hidden from the City by a group of insiders loyal to the previous mayor. This mayor made promises which, for whatever reasons, did not pan out, placing him immediately in the cross hairs of many who supported his candidacy. Up to now he has had a fractious relationship with the City Council. The primary bright light for this Mayor is the effective use of a new Police Chief to attack growing street crime at the cost of a burgeoning overtime budget account which the City, in all likelihood, cannot afford. Gang related violent crime and drug sales continue with little abatement.

The Fall River Office of Economic Development (FROED) has had few successes in the last few years. Just prior to the destination casino, the latest FROED discussion was aimed at the "parking near the New Courthouse" situation, with little regard given anyone in Fall River where adequate parking down town is concerned. It was a problem, like all recent failures related to FROED , that was laid at the feet of FROED's Executive Vice President and Fall River favorite son, Kenneth Fiola. FROED was also the biggest proponent of the Bio-Tech Park concept with Mr. Fiola having a role with both FROED and the Fall River Redevelopment Authority(RA), the body responsible for purchasing the 300 acre parcel of land for the Bio-Park from the state.

Of the greatest factors of concern to all citizens of Fall River are these unavoidable and undeniable FACTS -

* The City of Fall River faces the greatest financial hurdle in it's history to be presented in it's FY11 Operating Budget. Each year simple arithmetic shows how the gap between expenses needed to "turn the key and open City Hall for business" and the revenues needed to make that happen will grow much wider year after year for the foreseeable future. The issue is how will it be possible to balance this and future budgets even with cuts in manpower and services? The City teeters on financial insolvency, just like the City of Lawrence, yet another once proud mill town reduced to a haven of gangs and the violent crime and drug life they bring with them.
* The City of Fall River Schools are under state review for having vastly under-performing schools in comparison to statewide averages. The City ranks as third worst in the state for number of schools in dire condition of education performance as measured by standardized tests and student comprehension, with 3 listed, and only Boston and Springfield, much larger City's, in worse shape.
* The City of Fall River has the highest Unemployment Rate in the state, just over 18%, with over 50% of it's workforce from 18-65 without a high school diploma or GED. In short, the potential workforce is predominantly unskilled, uneducated and under and unemployed.
If every resource was made available today for the schools to educate and the students to learn well, it would take a couple of generations of students to pass through the school system to produce an educated and well trained workforce. Fall River is many years from being at that point.

All comments by Fall River supporters to the contrary these are hard facts. You cannot have any analysis of possible motivations by political actors to make the choices they make without first knowing the facts at hand. The political actors themselves operate under no illusions of what the facts are, and what they mean.

So, at this point, I will attempt to analyze the actions and statements we have seen so far as they relate to a "destination casino" and the Bio-Tech Park.

It looks like Mayor Flanagan and FROED saw it mutually advantageous to join forces to both solve an immediate crucial problem that directly touches most residents of the City (employment for it's largely uneducated and unskilled labor force, revenues to help fund City budget gaps) and one that also would raise goodwill both parties have with Fall River residents. In short, it's a shot to solve two of the City's worst problems and look good doing it at the same time. That's plenty of motivation to attempt the risk of moving the Bio-Park and proceed down the path towards a destination casino.  All protestations otherwise, UMass will fuss about it and the state will threaten to make the Wompanoags and Malaysians who back this casino financially with having to pay for the Rt. 24 cutoff and infrastructure improvements, but it was not originally state money in reality, it was stimulus funding that paid for much of the highway project. With a great likelihood that Deval Patrick will win another term as Governor, as long as the Fall River voters approve his re-election the Mayor will have little problem with the changes he seeks to the authorizing legislation placing restrictions of the 300 acre parcel. And the local legislative delegation's protests to the contray, with one GLARING exception, will eventually go along with the change as well.
At this point most politicians want to withhold immediate support for the project on the basis of appearances. They want to look responsible and concerned and will call for more time to 'look at the possible options". In fact, this posturing allows them to maintain a safe, hold blameless position in case the deal goes south, and someone else to blame if the Bio-Tech park is sited out of Fall River.  It's also a way to send a not very subtle signal to the financial interests backing this casino project exactly who needs to be wooed, if you will, in order to gain full support and votes for approval. What's that old saying about, "now that we know what you are, we're merely haggling over price"?
There is one state representative holding a strong position against the destination casino and to stay with the original Bio-Tech Park project. He is Rep. Rodrigues.  It may be the fact that he is backed by the MA Bio-Tech Council and head of the House committee that deals with Bio-Tech issues that keeps him solidly against the destination casino. In public sector parlance that is known as being "captured" by the people you regulate or have oversight responsibility for. This capturing is a function of needing information about what the business will do, through lobbyists, rather then trying to have staff learn what usually is very technical data and highly specialized information. That and spending a lot of time with representatives of the industry involved so you can learn what they do, who they are, and what they need from you and your committee to thrive as an industry, as well as what they can do for the commonwealth and constituents of your district.
In this case, Rep. Rodrigues is also recipient of tens of thousands of dollars from the industry itself in the form of campaign contributions. This is plainly put. I leave it up to the reader to determine if this is a "quid pro quo" arrangement, given that Rep. Rodrigues seeks to run for outgoing Sen. Menard's district seat in the Senate. Given the great costs of political campaigns these days, even State senate races have to come under deep scrutiny to see whose is truly a grass roots campaign and whose is a creature of machine politics and larger financial interests different from that district's constituents.

All sides, institutions, political actors and businesses are posturing right now. The knowledgeable folks in Fall River understand this. There will be more days than fewer in the next few months where rhetoric of the type covered in the HN article and comments section is the rule, not the exception. No one, not the Mayor, not FROED, not UMass nor the MA Bio-Tech Council know how this will all work out. But for trying to do something that will cure what ails Fall River's immediate situation, the joint cooperation between FROED, Mayor Flanagan and the developers of the destination casino draw first blood in this fight.

In any event "it ain't over till it's over". There is nothing that prevents the City from completing both projects. If the Bio-Tech Park falls through, it will be the decision of  UMass to  withdraw that will decide this issue once and for all. The City will never officially abandon that project. The details will have to be worked out.

Stay tuned.